Pokémon Go’s popularity looks to be on a decline, if the latest data is anything to go by.
According to charts published by Bloomberg, using data from analytics firm Apptopia, Pokémon Go peaked at around 45 million users in mid-July, during the week or so following its launch. Last week saw the start of a decline to somewhere above 30 million daily users, a 33% drop from the apex .
While it may still be too early to gauge how Pokémon Go will perform – early signs suggest that the excitement around Pokémon Go may not last forever. Data by the same firm also reflects that while interest in augmented reality (AR) is waning, interest in virtual reality (VR) remains high.
Whether AR or VR is the darling of the moment – it is clear that these technologies represent the new wave that businesses and marketers need to get ready for, according to Adobe.
In a white paper titled “Capitalizing on Viewers’ Hunger for Virtual and Augmented Reality,” Adobe provides some handy insights around helping businesses get ready for the next AR/VR.
Growth trajectory for shipments of immersive devices
The Diffusion Group, a boutique market research and strategy consulting firm focused exclusively on the future of TV, predicts that VR will have a global user base of more than 275 million by 2025.
In the United States, it is predicted that VR shipments will grow from less than 5 million annually in 2016, to approximately 70 million annually by 2025. Investment firm Goldman Sachs estimates that consumers worldwide will purchase between 50 and 300 million immersive devices annually by 2025.
With annual shipments growing to hundreds of millions, highly immersive VR and AR experiences will no longer be a novelty – they will be commonplace.
Possible convergence of AR and VR
VR and AR will certainly converge in future. It’s possible that AR will advance to the point where it can not only brighten real life with “holograms” but also darken and block out elements of the real world. This would allow AR to simulate VR, which will be one method of convergence. It’s also possible that VR could use cameras to bring the real world into VR environments. This would allow VR to simulate AR, which would be another method of convergence.
It may still be 5 years or more before VR and AR converge. When convergence happens, it will allow consumers to enjoy a wider range of immersive experiences with a single device.
According to Adobe, there are six ways businesses can engage users with immersive VR and AR viewing experience:
1. Virtual cinema experiences in VR.
One way for multiscreen content providers to bring their existing content library tothe latest VR devices is by providing a virtual cinema experience. This would require providing a new virtual cinema app or adding VR cinema functionality to an existing app in such a way that the users feels as though he or she is in a 3D theatre with a massive screen. On the massive screen, each user could navigate through 2D or 3D shows and movies, choose the one that they are interested in, and watch it.
2. Virtual cinema experiences in AR.
As consumer adoption of AR devices grows, it will soon become practical for multiscreen content providers to also deliver virtual cinema experiences in AR. The virtual cinema experience in AR would be slightly different than the virtual cinema experience in VR because it would augment the physical space that the user is in with a virtual screen and an accompanying ‘holographic’ virtual environment
3. Virtual cinema experiences with social viewing in AR or VR
Innovations are already underway to make AR and VR experiences more social. These innovations will pave the way to a more social virtual cinema experience in AR and VR environments. For example, Microsoft Research is working on a technology they call holoportation, which uses cameras to build a model of a remote person and then “holographically” display him or her with Microsoft HoloLens. The significance of this? At some point in the future, a group of friends will be able to holoport themselves to a virtual cinema or sports bar and socialize as if they are really there.
4. 180° VR video
Once a multiscreen content provider has an audience in VR environments, they can start to deliver video in formats that take full advantage of the video playback capabilities of VR devices. One such format is 180° VR video. 180° VR video takes up the half of the sphere that’s in front of the user. If the user looks past a 90-degree angle from the center of the 180 ° VR video, they’ll just see black or a static environment or image.
One company that’s delivering VR video to audiences is NextVR, which offers an app for Samsung Gear VR where it distributes 180° and 360° VR video directly to users. According to NextVR, the app features a dedicated FOX Sports channel, along with NBA and International Champions Cup content and more.
5. 360° VR video
Another format that takes even fuller advantage of the video playback capabilities of VR devices is 360° VR video. This is similar to 180° VR video, except that the user can turn in any direction and still see video content.
Many exceptional 360° VR video experiences have already reached users, including 360° VR videos from the Discovery Channel that immerse views in nature. The “Mythbusters: Sharks Everywhere!” 360° VR video experience is among the most impressive from the Discovery Channel.
6. Volumetric video and light fields
Some VR capabilities remain in the experimental stage, such as volumetric video and lightfields, which are different ways of allowing users to walk around freely within a VR video. Volumetric video provides a way to fully scan and capture a moving, talking person (or object so that users can walk around it). When a user engages with volumetric video, it’s as if they are at the edge of a sphere, looking in at a main character. The user can walk around the character and no matter if they look at it from left or right, up or down or even tilt their head, the character is accurately portrayed.
Volumetric video and light fields will take some time to enter the mainstream because the bandwidth needs are dramatically high – even higher than that of 360 VR video. As a result, the first mainstream implementations will likely be still photography instead of video. New technical standards and bandwidth advances will have to be developed in order for video implementations to go mainstream.